Emerge 365
EMERGE 365
Emerging and Frontier Market Investment Stability Survey and Event Risk Reports
The Emerge 365 survey gauges the continuity of governance in Emerging and Frontier markets. The survey monitors internal stability across five equally weighted risk categories; Regime, Censure, Conflict, Civil, and Event, and in doing so provides an investment stability rating for each country.
The Emerge 365 survey is used by private equity and institutional investors who operate in Emerging and Frontier economies. The survey provides investors with an understanding of internal country shocks that are liable to affect equities and cause business disruption. The unique investment stability figure provides a quarterly snapshot of investment risk for a given country.
Emerge 365 analysis evaluates risk in terms of uncertainty in government planning. Findings do not reflect broad indicators of social or economic performance but account for the capacity of the ruling government to enact fiscal policy. Only those crises or internal shocks which may disrupt executive decision-making are considered strong indicators of risk. Because most security issues do not affect government planning, the Emerge 365 takes a contrarian view of political risk and views growth potential in markets often characterized as high risk.
The 5 risk criteria definitions are as follows:
- Regime Risk - Concern for government to lose key decision-makers or see the executive replaced
- Censure Risk - Concern that opposition bloc will force vote of no-confidence in the current session
- Conflict Risk - Concern for excessive spending on national defence, especially combat operations
- Civil Risk - Concern for militias to reject rule of law and impede cross-border trade
- Event Risk - Concern for governance and trade policy which may be hostile to foreign investment
